Thank you for laying all this out. And, as sociologist David Reisman says, whenever a lot of people are participating in something, there are a lot of different reasons for their participation.
Obviously there might be multiple causes as you point out so clearly, and only the wildest conspiracy theories can be ruled out for certain. It may take years to untangle it all. But when I think about the most proximate causes it feels like a combination of just a couple of things:
1. The urgency was pushed by Israel and this war is largely in the service of their security priorities (specifically their concern about Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities). Israel persuaded Trump that Iran is really weak at this moment — weaker, it turns out, than it actually is — and that this therefore is the time to strike
2. The war is also an expression of Trump’s authoritarianism — previous presidents didn’t have the balls to do it. He alone could solve the Middle East. And of course it’d be an easy win, like Venezuela. (Netanyahu and others like Lindsay Graham, Tom Cotton, Laura Loomer, Marc Levin played him like a fiddle.)
The doctrine Israel is using now, and which is backed by Trump (and formerly by the Biden administration), is that any constraint whatsoever on Israel’s freedom of action in the region is unacceptable, and is now defined as “an imminent threat.” The phrase we always heard was “Israel has a right to defend itself.” But this has now morphed into “ONLY Israel has a right…”This can only lead to continued conflict.
Whether intended or not, you make it sound as if Trump thinks linearly and isn’t cognitively impaired when in fact his thinking is disordered. It is not so much that he had many reasons to attack Iran, but rather the reason changed day to day because he cannot keep a thought in his mind for longer than 5 minutes.
As Charlie Munger said, anytime there is a large effect there are multiple causes. Same is true for illness. Let's add in to the pile the multiple psychopathologies of the players (Vance, Hegseth, Rubio etc.). At the top of that heap is the pleasure Trump gets from using his trillion dollar military toy to wreak havoc and destruction (and murder).
Thanks! I didn't know that quote so I just looked it up: It is a great principle in psychiatry that “all-symptoms are overdetermined." This means that they have more than one cause.
I want to scream this from the rooftops: “All symptoms are overdetermined.” Except that I want to expand it way beyond psychiatry. I want to expand it to almost everything. I want to translate it, “Anything of any significance is overdetermined. Everything worth thinking about has more than one cause.” Repeat after me: “For any single thing of importance, there are multiple reasons.” Again, “For any single thing of importance, there are multiple reasons.”
M. Scott Peck, In Search of Stones: A Pilgrimage of Faith, Reason, and Discovery
Thank you for laying all this out. And, as sociologist David Reisman says, whenever a lot of people are participating in something, there are a lot of different reasons for their participation.
Obviously there might be multiple causes as you point out so clearly, and only the wildest conspiracy theories can be ruled out for certain. It may take years to untangle it all. But when I think about the most proximate causes it feels like a combination of just a couple of things:
1. The urgency was pushed by Israel and this war is largely in the service of their security priorities (specifically their concern about Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities). Israel persuaded Trump that Iran is really weak at this moment — weaker, it turns out, than it actually is — and that this therefore is the time to strike
2. The war is also an expression of Trump’s authoritarianism — previous presidents didn’t have the balls to do it. He alone could solve the Middle East. And of course it’d be an easy win, like Venezuela. (Netanyahu and others like Lindsay Graham, Tom Cotton, Laura Loomer, Marc Levin played him like a fiddle.)
The doctrine Israel is using now, and which is backed by Trump (and formerly by the Biden administration), is that any constraint whatsoever on Israel’s freedom of action in the region is unacceptable, and is now defined as “an imminent threat.” The phrase we always heard was “Israel has a right to defend itself.” But this has now morphed into “ONLY Israel has a right…”This can only lead to continued conflict.
Whether intended or not, you make it sound as if Trump thinks linearly and isn’t cognitively impaired when in fact his thinking is disordered. It is not so much that he had many reasons to attack Iran, but rather the reason changed day to day because he cannot keep a thought in his mind for longer than 5 minutes.
that Gursky photo is amazing!
And pre-AI (obviously)!
As Charlie Munger said, anytime there is a large effect there are multiple causes. Same is true for illness. Let's add in to the pile the multiple psychopathologies of the players (Vance, Hegseth, Rubio etc.). At the top of that heap is the pleasure Trump gets from using his trillion dollar military toy to wreak havoc and destruction (and murder).
Totally agree -- and that is prime Glenn Berger territory. It's time for your You Tube series "Diagnosing the Dominators."
“ everything is over determined” M Scott Peck. Your summation is enlightening. Thank you.
Thanks! I didn't know that quote so I just looked it up: It is a great principle in psychiatry that “all-symptoms are overdetermined." This means that they have more than one cause.
I want to scream this from the rooftops: “All symptoms are overdetermined.” Except that I want to expand it way beyond psychiatry. I want to expand it to almost everything. I want to translate it, “Anything of any significance is overdetermined. Everything worth thinking about has more than one cause.” Repeat after me: “For any single thing of importance, there are multiple reasons.” Again, “For any single thing of importance, there are multiple reasons.”
M. Scott Peck, In Search of Stones: A Pilgrimage of Faith, Reason, and Discovery
That is great - thanks for connecting me to it.