Recently, I was talking with a friend in the tech space, who told me that, in his circle, opinions about Trump are completely polarized: either this period is the end of democracy, or it’s the “golden age” (in Trump’s words). There is no in-between.
Since I actually know some of my friend’s pro-Trump friends, I imagined what it would be like to write them a letter. Not to send it – I have no delusions about persuading them – but to see if I could put my perspective into words. Here is the result.
Let’s start with some things we won’t agree on, but which I’ll assume for the sake of argument.
First, you think (I am told) that there is too much federal regulation of technology, and of business in general; that this regulation is stifling innovation and creativity; and that, as a result, we might lose ground to China and other competitors, especially when it comes to AI/AGI and other transformative technologies.
To be honest, I don’t totally disagree: a Chinese-government-authorized AGI would not be good for human flourishing. Then again, the tech field has made some colossal mistakes in the last two decades and I think some regulation is probably helpful. But let me just stipulate to whatever beliefs you have about this question.
I will also stipulate to any criticisms you may have about wokeness, DEI, virtue signaling, the overreach of MeToo, and other cultural issues. Ditto with financial regulations, tax policy, plus Big Pharma, Big Ag, and Big Gov in general. For the sake of argument, I’m willing to agree that all of these are serious problems that need to be solved, even if the problem solver is a little messy and goes overboard sometimes.
But Trump isn’t just a little messy. My claim is that even if these benefits are significant, the costs are so high that they more than outweigh them. Here are fourteen of them.
1. The Trump Coalition. First, and this is a foundation of everything I’ll say here, it would be hubris to imagine that the finance-tech-Musk-libertarian wing of the Trump coalition is dominant, or will remain so. That coalition also includes Christian conservatives, MAGA nationalists, whatever RFK is, and others. These factions are sometimes in harmony, each working on their own areas of interest, but they often clash, as when MAGA nationalists prevailed over every reasonable economist in the country and started a trade war for no reason. How sure are you that the Obviously Right Solution is going to prevail over the latest Christian Right obsession, post-liberal revanchism, or ultra-nationalistic fever dream? I’m not sure at all; it hasn’t so far. And the plans these coalitions have for the Christianization of America and the post-liberal, post-democratic order would radically disturb not only millions of lives (including those of many, many smart elites like us) but surely harm America’s ability to thrive and compete in the 21st century. They certainly don’t respect tech elites and their liberated sexual ethics. They have no interest in freedom of expression or freedom of thought. Christian Nationalists are nuts and you don’t control them. On the contrary, they might be playing you.
2. The Woke Right. One of the things my tech friends appreciate about Trump was that, for all his faults, he is anti-woke. But his regime hasn’t given us anti-wokeness; it’s given us an authoritarian wokeness, in which new words and terms are forbidden, in which mainstream academics, journalists, lawyers are afraid to speak. It’s led to a right-wing McCarthyism of threads, punishments, and groupthink — what anti-woke activist Helen Pluckrose (with whom I strongly disagree on many subjects) calls the rise of the Woke Right. With Trump in power, Pluckrose writes:
a stark division is revealed between those who opposed wokeness primarily because it was authoritarian and being institutionalised and those who opposed it because it was the wrong kind of authoritarian and wanted to institutionalise something else.
As a result, hundreds of thousands of people are living in hell right now. Personally, I’ve had my academic job threatened by deranged ideologues allied with major supporters of the institution where I work, and they may yet prevail. All of us are afraid to speak, lest we speak words that might be construed as “DEI” or “antisemitism” (for the record, I am a rabbi) and offend the new woke overlords. We may have supported anti-wokeism but we got a new wokeism.
3. The Actual Foundation of Constitutional Democracy. Let’s avoid the semantics of the word “fascism.” Can we agree that public officials defying legitimate court orders is radically, deeply unconstitutional? The separation of powers, including respect for judicial rulings, is literally the foundation of American constitutional democracy, and Trump officials have already undermined it. And who knows if Trump will even respect a Supreme Court opinion he doesn’t like. Do you think you will evade this lawlessness? Sorry to make a Nazi analogy, but this is a lot like what what happened to German Industrialists in the 1930s, who thought they could work with Hitler until Hitler came after them too. And once respect for judicial review goes, do you actually think there will be fair elections in 2026 and 2028 — even though “election accountability” units are already being set up? I’m not a hysterical, hyperbolic person. I’m calling balls and strikes here. Defying court orders, using state power to attack political adversaries — this is kind of the literal definition of fascism, or authoritarianism, or whatever you want to call it. Do you really think this is all just liberal hysteria and exaggeration?
4. Due Process Junked. As you and I go about our comfortable lives, innocent people are being arrested, stripped, interrogated, and deported without any due process – simply because they got swept up in the same dragnet as the bad guys. To take just one recent example, Trump officials admitted they didn’t have clear information on dozens of the alleged gang members they deported earlier this month. They just did a sweep and sent people to prisons in El Salvador. Whatever one may think about immigration, rounding up people and deporting them without due process is profoundly un-American and dangerous for almost everyone. Here’s a good post about that:
[Update: One of the deportees is now proven, according to sworn declarations, to have been innocent: a pro soccer player whose Real Madrid tattoo was mistaken for a Cartel de los Soles tattoo.]
5. DOGE’s Depredations. Likewise, whatever one may make of DOGE’s intentions or actions, the way they have been carried out is wildly, insanely unconstitutional. Only Congress has the power to create, fund, and eliminate agencies. In my view, the substance of the cuts is reckless, foolish, cruel, and arbitrary. They also melt upon inspection: while Musk has claimed to have made $105 billion in cuts, the true number is only $8.6 billion, and that’s come at the expense of eliminating vital services like veterans’ healthcare and national park staffing. For Christ’s sake, we may soon have a tuberculosis epidemic on our hands because of the way USAID was (unconstitutionally, stupidly, and unconscionably) shut down. Yet even if you support the substance of these cuts, the process has completely ignored the constitutional order we’ve lived under for 230 years. Judges are pushing back, but every day, another Trump official maligns and threatens them. This isn’t breaking some eggs to make an omelet; it’s breaking the plates, pots, and pans.
6. The Economy. After one of the best ‘soft landings’ in economic history, our country is now headed for a recession. Tariffs have already cost jobs, government cuts have cost many more, and Trump himself has said a recession may now be unavoidable. Is it really plausible that Trump is playing three-dimensional chess here? Isn’t it more plausible that, as literally every paragraph he speaks makes clear, he’s erratic, impulsive, irrational, and impervious to advice? Is there any plan for getting out of this Optional Recession? Will this not affect the very business interests that Trump was meant to help, including the technology sector? Is there any gameplan for averting this completely preventable disaster?
7. The War on Education. Christopher Rufo’s ideologically-driven war on universities is already harming the institutions that actually make America great when it comes to technology, science, and medicine. In terms of technology specifically, the Internet itself was a product of government-funded research, and ICANN was a government creation. Can that really be replaced by for-profit companies? Who will pay for scientific research where the potential for ROI is uncertain or unknown? More broadly, we’ve seen research budgets slashed and entire institutions crippled on the thinnest of pretexts (antisemitism, DEI, trans, whatever), when what is actually going on is the imposition of conservative Christian morality and ultra-right-wing nationalism, and the erosion of educational institutions that subject these things to critique. We are going to get stupider than our international competitors, fast — especially as secondary education is also threatened, and replaced by science-poor religious education. In what way does making us stupider make us stronger? And again, these culture warriors aren’t Yarvineseque, libertarian, network-society visionaries — they’re philistines and religious fanatics. They envy cultural and academic knowledge which they do not understand. They think it’s decadent, sinful, and anti-Western. But what is more anti-Western than attacking the foundations of liberal society?
8. Climate Suicide. Every technologist I’ve met understands that the climate crisis is real, that it is already devastating, and that it will rapidly get much worse. And yet, many still think the benefits of Trump will outweigh the massive costs of his denialism. Really? What is the gameplan for surviving a world of one billion climate refugees, massive crop disruption, and severe weather events like the L.A. fires at a 10x frequency from now? The WHO estimates that climate change will kill 250,000 people each year, starting in 2030. No one is immune from these massive changes. Meanwhile, non-regulatory approaches to climate change mitigation, like geoengineering and adaptation, are also not being pursued, while the Trump administration cancels wind, solar, and EV initiatives that were working well and creating jobs. And there’s a >99% consensus among actual climatologists (as opposed to non-specialists who are “scientists” but know as much about climate change as I do about antitrust law) that anthrogenic climate change is real. Not a hoax, not an exaggeration, but a fact. What is your response to the Trump administration’s anti-scientific, fossil-fuel-pandering climate denial?
Here are a few more costs to consider:
9. Appointees. Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth – these are totally unqualified bullies in charge of the police state and the military. Is it not troubling to be in a coalition with people like this? And who, I wonder, will Trump appoint to the courts?
10. Pandemics. I cannot believe that we are facing a possible Bird Flu pandemic, a massive Measels outbreak, and an HHS secretary who has said that HIV doesn’t cause AIDS while funding for HIV prevention is being slashed. And I mentioned tuberculosis already. I’m all for natural healing, good nutrition, and supplements, but cod liver oil is not going to cure the measles. Meanwhile, Atul Gawande estimates that eliminating USAID’s Malaria and HIV programs will kill 160,000 people in 2025 alone.
11. Immiserating Trans People. In three months, we’ve gone from centrists “just asking questions” about trans kids in sports to a complete ban on hormones for teenagers (86% of whom report suicidality), the defunding of any hospital that provides trans surgeries for adults, and the denationalizing of trans people, making it impossible for them to travel abroad. The spectrum of gender is real and has always been with us; that’s not “gender ideology,” it’s the historical record and the scientific opinion of the overwhelming majority of experts. Scapegoating trans people, lying about “boys in girls’ bathrooms,” ignoring the real-life stories of actual trans kids and their parents, lying about genital surgery (which is already illegal for kids) and calling it genital mutilation — all this is supremely cruel. It’s fine to have doubts and questions about transgender identity and medical interventions. But that’s not where we are right now. I have many friends who are living in terror because of this. It’s not fake.
12. We Look Pathetic and Cruel. It’s hard to think of a period this pathetic, barbaric, and just plain cruel in the last fifty years of American history. We are now the laughingstock of the world. The sudden abandonment of our obligations that were promised through USAID, Trump’s embrace of Putin’s lies about Ukraine (and his shameful behavior toward Zelensky), and his numerous idiotic statements about Canada, Gaza, Greenland, and so on have alienated every ally we have (except Israel, I suppose) while emboldening our strategic adversaries. It’s only been two months, but the reputational damage here is irreparable. I’ve never seen patriotic people so grievously harm the nation they profess to love.
13. Unparalleled Corruption. From Trump’s meme coin to Don Jr.’s mixture of politics and business in Belgrade, America has rapidly become a pathetic kleptocracy. Honestly, I don’t think corruption is so shocking; I’m just saying we look ridiculous, and that harms American interests overall. Likewise these preposterous tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, the self-dealing with fossil fuel companies, the shafting of consumers in favor of banks – this may not be new territory, but it is shameful. And if we’re not ashamed yet, our allies will remind us.
14. Know-Nothingism. Finally, I want to suggest that a lot of the Trump phenomenon isn’t really that new. Trump himself is a unique historical figure, a genius con-man who knows how to appeal to the base instincts of his base. But a lot of this stuff is the same far-right-wing bullshit as always: attack the intellectuals, the women, the queers, the foreigners. This is just more of the same anti-intellectualism in American life that brought us the original Know-Nothings, the John Birch Society, George Wallace, Strom Thurmond, and, yes, Joe McCarthy. And so, returning to my first point, is it really reasonable to believe that this faction of Trumpism can be kept on a leash? Or is it more reasonable to think it might bite you and me in the ass? These people want a Christian nation that is dominated by white dudes, they hate elites, and you are an elite. Please tell me the plan for your tribe prevailing over theirs.
Now, it is interesting that some extremely unusual ideas — eugenics through bio-hacking and psychedelics; achieving immortality by uploading our consciousness into the AGI Matrix; transhumanism and extropianism — sit, for now, alongside the know-nothing demagoguery of Tucker Carlson and his former colleagues at Fox News. I would not have predicted this marriage of anti-establishment convenience. But I am highly skeptical that it will last, or will inure to the benefit of all parties. Have you considered that maybe you are the ones getting swindled?
Where we might disagree the most, though, is where I’ll close this letter: the nature of the human heart. Obviously, humans have instincts toward competition, self-preservation, tribalism, and self-interest. It’s not hard to write a neo-Nietzschean, Ayn Randian, Thielian, Alex-Karpian tract that says this is how human nature is, and we ought to maximize the freedom of the elite 20% for the sake of all of civilization.
But humans also have instincts toward cooperation, empathy, and compassion, no less evolutionarily evolved, and no less important for our collective survival in the century to come. And when I reflect objectively on the climate catastrophe, for example, it’s clear that these traits are more important, not less, than in centuries past. We might have gotten away with acting like warring bands of apes when the worst we could do was localized devastation and genocide. But the same instincts that once served our survival now threaten it.
I admit, I would believe in compassion even if this weren’t true. Following Richard Rorty, I think and feel that cruelty is the worst thing human beings can do to one another, and I am viscerally repulsed by it.
But if I’m deluded by my attachment to compassion, you may be deluded by your narrowness of focus. Because you, too, are human, and subject to delusion. Ironically, it is this humanity that enables you to support inhumanity.
Well, this has been gestating awhile. I’m curious to hear your feedback. Are there “costs” that I didn’t include that you would add to the list?
A couple of appearances are coming up soon. I’m slated to be on CNN’s Saturday morning show “Table For Five” this week, Saturday at 10am ET. And on Monday night, March 24, I’ll be part of an online event hosted by the Jewish organization Moving Traditions called “Supporting our Trans & Queer Youth Now.”
Some further reading:
This week’s “Must Read” is this devastating interview by David Remnick with Atul Gawande. Do not read late at night or if you’re in a low emotional state.
Steve Vladeck has been on a roll lately. Here he is talking about due process in the immigration context.
Here’s more detail on the faulty DOGE numbers.
Another great psychedelics piece from Jules Evans, this time on longstanding images and narratives of hostile entities in high-dose psychedelic experiences.
Thank you and welcome to my new subscribers. Thanks to your support, I’m happy to report that I’m working with a crack Substack developer now and the newsletter and website will look better and different in the coming weeks. Stay tuned and stay open.
Fabulous encapsulation